Peter Macfarlane comments on Gold Bullion Investing, the Dollar-Euro rate, and Crisis Investing Opportunity in Hungary for The Q Wealth Report

I’m trying to get ahead of myself at the moment in order to take a little time off in August. The result of this is that I’ve got behind on some other things, like keeping up with the news. Besides, I’m a traditionalist who still likes reading magazines in print, and they sometimes take a while to catch up with me on my travels.

Hence, I’m only commenting now on an interesting article in The Economist dated July 10th. They got my attention with the cover headline “Why Gold Has Probably Peaked.” Huh? How could the Economist be saying that? Here’s a quote from the article:

At some point either the worst fears of the gold bugs must be realised – in which case, heaven help us – or the world will become a less nervous place.

The hypothesis of the article is that demand in India and China for gold jewellery is shrinking, that gold is not a great investment because it doesn’t pay interest. As the world economy returns to business as usual, says the Economist, “the gold market may also return to some semblance of normality” – in other words downwards.

Well I can’t disagree that if the global economy really does get better, gold quoted in dollars might fall. But the idea that the global economy is getting better, or that the world is suddenly about to become more tranquil and relaxed, really is a stretch…

Sometimes I think Americans have a hard time understanding Europe, as I have written recently in my comments on the Euro. I said the Euro would recover and now it’s back above 1.30 to the greenback. But the Economist is very European in some ways and it seems they have a hard time understanding Americans. I mean, if they think the world economy is returning to business as usual, what planet are they referring to???

Most of my days at the moment are taken up with Americans who want to get out of the USA. They are looking for offshore investments, foreign residencies and economic citizenships. Of course if we get bogged down in our daily routines we might be able to block out of our minds what is going on – and that is what the majority do, because they don’t want to leave their comfort zones.

However, just think back to two years ago, even a year ago, and see how things have changed – for the worse. Anyone who thinks business is getting back to normal is living in cloud cuckoo land.

Here’s something else I like. The article quotes Willem Buiter, and Anglo-Dutch economist who blogs at the FT under the moniker maverecon as saying he would not invest:

into something without intrinsic value, something whose positive value is based on nothing more than a set of self-confirming beliefs.

Apparently, Buiter was talking about gold when he said this! However I would say it about fiat currencies like the dollar, euro or pound sterling. Is he seriously trying to tell us that say the US dollar has intrinsic value based on anything other than self-confirming beliefs? (In that case, the dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the Obama government…) Give me my gold bullion I can touch and feel over paper and electrons any day!

On a slightly different but related topic, my fellow traveller Simon Black who blogs as Sovereign Man has written a couple of interesting pieces on fiat money recently. In what I think is an excellent analysis, he explains why trillions of dollars of institutional money are constantly looking for the least worst currency to hang out in, leading to frequent switching between the dollar, the euro and the yen in a race to the bottom. This keeps the three currencies almost even in the race to the bottom, so people don’t really notice the devaluations going on… but like any landing in a storm, there’s a lot of turbulence.

Then yesterday Simon wrote about Hungary, a country I used to live and invest in some years ago and still a pretty good place to live I think. I’ll be watching Hungary closely and Simon correctly points out that what is going on there could well turn out to be more devastating than the Greek sovereign debt crisis. This would definitely lead to a flow of money out of the euro again, and the balancing increase in the dollar as that turbulence continues. As a reader pointed out on Sovereign Man, “The result of a Hungarian default would be very similar to Argentina in 2001 with some very interesting investment implications.” I rather hope Hungary does default… then I will be one of the first in there to buy some tangible real estate with a briefcase full of Federal Reserve promises…

However, one thing Americans never quite understand about Europe is that nothing happens there in August. Hungary is unlikely to default in August as that would interfere with the annual month-long party at Lake Balaton, where Budapest moves to in August. (Like Paris moves to the countryside, or Buenos Aires moves to Punta del Este in December)

It’s always safe to take some time off in August. Come September, your writer and the Q Wealth team will be gathering in Cork, Ireland for Q Wealth Masterclass – a unique opportunity to meet and rub shoulders with a dream team of people who think like us. Read about the speakers here and Five Urgent Reasons why you should attend here. This will be your opportunity not just to protect your assets but put them into long term offshore investments with growth potential. Gold and Offshore Real Estate will be right up there at the top of the investing agenda.

It seems that what the Economist sees as the worst fears of the gold bugs is actually just what the gold bugs are hoping for… Heaven help people who are not gold bugs!

“I’m a young, single US Citizen who is very concerned with the way things are going. I hope the government works things out fine. But in the meantime, prudence dictates that I have an exit strategy in place.”

That question came in recently for a reader asking about second passports and economic citizenship programs. The client was willing to do the following things:

1. Marry a Local Citizen (with an enforceable pre-nup).
2. Purchase a small property at Fair Market Value and pay property taxes.
3. Start a small business and pay local taxes.
4. Spend time to learn the local language.
5. Live in my new country for about 4-6 months per year for 3 years.

However, he also had a clear list of things he wanted to avoid:

1. I’m not willing to spend much more than 4-6 months per year.
2. I’m not willing to wait much more than 3 years.
3. I don’t think a Dominican Republic passport, St Kitts and Nevis Passport or Dominica passport is taken seriously so I want to avoid those countries.
4. I want to Avoid Canada because their taxes are too high.
5. I want to avoid renouncing my USA passport (but I might if needed)

The client’s research has already had him zeroing in on South America. Both Uruguay and Paraguay are attractive options, though they both have their clear advantages and disadvantages.

Although I don’t necessarily agree that Dominica and St Kitts and Nevis passports are not taken seriously, people in the know will certainly be aware that you’ve bought them. They are respectable programs, but still, I can understand this chap’s sentiments. If you can take the time to acquire a second passport by residence, including learning some of the local lingo, the advantages are huge. Both Uruguay and Paraguay have great visa-free travel. Feeling comfortable with your travel document is very important, so, in this case, I would definitely recommend the client goes with something from the zone he has been looking into.

“I’ve never been to Uruguay but I did the most research on Uruguay and it seems like a good country to gain citizenship. I must marry a local to get my citizenship in 3 years.  I’m told a great advantage of Uruguay is that you only need to be in  the country 3 months per year for 3 years if married and 5 years if single. I don’t know if this is true?”

Not exactly. A great thing about Uruguay is that although the normal waiting time for a passport for a single person is five years, anyone who is part of a “family unit” living in Uruguay can apply for naturalization and passport after three years. This does not necessarily mean you have to marry a local. It just means that if you have family in the country, it shows a greater committment, and therefore the waiting time is reduced to three years.

Marrying a citizen of any country is fine as long as the married couple live in Uruguay. Gay marriages are acceptable too. A family unit could also consist of brothers, a father and son, an uncle and nephew etc. The point is just that you should have a significant other in Uruguay.

The time you have to spend there is not set in stone but I guess 4-6 months is about the minimum. The connection you have with the country is more important than the number of days you physically spend there. Buying real estate, for example, demonstrates a connection, as does having a local corporation, paying taxes and social security etc. These are the kind of things you can expect the Uruguayan government to check up on when it comes to applying for citizenship.

Living in Uruguay is easy. More details of expat life in Uruguay, for example, can be found at Ola Uruguay. In the areas where expats typically live, services are of first world standard and there is little corruption.

All this comes at a cost, however. Compared to the rest of Latin America, both real estate and the cost of living in Uruguay is high. In the jet-set hideout of Jose Ignacio, a trendy village half an hour east of Punta del Este, I thought I was in London or Paris when I saw the restaurant bill!

So that’s living and obtaining a second passport in Uruguay, but what about taxes? For more details of Uruguay residence and citizenship, I am currently working on a free report that should be available during the summer to Q Wealth members. The report will take into consideration the new tax situation in Uruguay announced in May 2010, where for the first time Uruguayan residents (both citizens and foreign residents) will be subject for the first time to taxation on their worldwide income. If you would like to get this report as soon as it comes out, and without having to remember to check back here from time-to-time, let us know here: Uruguay Residence and Citizenship.

Now, for young-at-heart individuals with a sense of adventure and a slightly higher tolerance for risk (or perhaps an appetite for profit?) there is a wildcard choice: Paraguay. One might choose Paraguay over Uruguay because:

• you can apply after three years for citizenship, with no need to worry about family units
• no need to buy real estate: $5000 deposit in a local bank is enough
• costs in Paraguay are much lower
• it’s a country full of business opportunities
• it’s more anarchic than Uruguay, meaning less control and more freedom… for example, nobody is really going to count how many days you are there. Having residence on paper is enough.

I’ll be writing more about second citizenship opportunities in Paraguay in the second part of this article, which will be published in a week’s time. In the meantime, we have another article here: Paraguay Second Citizenship